The Ministry of Commerce hired an economist Qu Jian
When sent away in 2011, many people naturally think of a topic that is of great concern both at home and abroad - is it better next year? Not only do Chinese people care about domestic life, but now Europeans and Americans are also concerned about what kind of real estate trend China will look like next year. How will China’s monetary policy be adjusted, and the 2012 monetary policy will be more stringent than in 2011, or It is moderately relaxed. Closely related to the furniture industry is how the domestic real estate policy moves. On December 27, 2011, the Ministry of Commerce hired an economist, Qu Jian, to make a wonderful analysis of the above issues at the Shenzhen Furniture Industry Association General Assembly. His views mainly include two parts: First, stand in Shenzhen to see In the future, especially the trend of the international economic development situation next year, let us look at the forecast of our domestic economic trends. Second, focus on our manufacturing.
Looking at the global economic development - showing an overall downward trend
In 2011, the global economic growth rate will reach 3.8% in general, which is a relatively normal operation year after the financial crisis. Among them, the transcripts submitted by several countries are exceptionally beautiful, mainly referring to the “BRIC countriesâ€. The GDP growth rate of the BRIC countries averaged 7.5%, including China, Brazil, Russia, and India. In addition, emerging economies, including South Africa and the BRIC countries, have an overall economic growth rate four times that of developed countries, which is four times higher than the average growth rate in Europe and America.
Another very important feature is that the economic growth trend in 2011 shows a downward channel, which is mainly reflected in two aspects. First, the growth rate of developed economies is lower than that of emerging economies, and the second is that the growth rate in the second half is lower. The first half of the year. The two are “belowâ€, which is the overall economic trend that was demonstrated in 2011. According to the predictions of the growth rate of the world's major economic countries by some major international research institutions, the new forecast in 2012 is generally lower than the original forecast. That is to say, the economy will continue to follow the path of bottoming out next year. This is the overall judgment of most research institutions for 2012.
Specifically speaking, the international economic situation is divided into regions. The average annual growth rate of the third quarter GDP in the United States is only 1.8%, which is less than the target value of the lowest 2% predicted this year, and is lowered by 0.2%. In the first three quarters of the European Union and the Eurozone, the GDP grew by only 1.4%, the highest of which was Estonia, which was 8%, followed by Lithuania and Germany. However, there have also been very large differences within the Eurozone, such as Greece's decline of 4.8% and Portugal's decline of 0.7%.
For emerging economies, China's growth in the first three quarters of this year was 9.4%, but there are still areas to worry about. In the third quarter, it only increased by 9.1%, and in the second quarter, it increased by 9.5%. This shows that the economic decline in the third quarter is very fast. Second, India’s growth in the first three quarters of this year was 6.9%, which is the past five. The quarter with the lowest growth rate in the quarter indicates that its trend has shown a downward trend in the past five quarters. In addition, Brazil's GDP increased by 4.7% in the first three quarters of this year, and the third quarter shrank by 0.17% compared with the second quarter. At the same time, Brazil has also experienced a negative growth for the first time since 2009, indicating that Brazil has also shown a downward trend; and Russia has also shown this trend, 4.1% in the first three quarters and 4.5% in the first quarter. The above data shows that although the emerging economies have maintained positive growth overall and the growth rate is relatively optimistic, it still shows a downward trend.
Economics "cancer" - stagflation will be devastating
In 2011, the Chinese people should feel the impact of inflation, especially the blue-collar workers feel the pressure is very obvious. But when summing up the global situation, it seems that the Chinese people are "balanced" a lot. This round of inflation is not only manifested in China, India: Brazil's inflation rate in July was as high as 6.9%; Russia's inflation in May was as high as 9.6%; India's inflation rate in June was as high as 9.4%; and China's top three The quarterly CPI was only 5.7%. In general, China is not the most obvious leader in this inflation, because other emerging economies have higher inflation rates than China.
Secondly, the inflation rate in the Eurozone and the US is also climbing all the way. The Eurozone's inflation rate in July reached 2.5%, which was higher than the 2% maximum valuation limit for 8 consecutive months.
Regarding inflation in the Eurozone, Qu Jian explained: "Everyone may not be very clear about the concept of the Eurozone. The problem of inflation and currency stability in Europe is the central bank's decision, and the full employment problem is said by the government. Counting, this is two completely different systems; in China, the State Council has the unified plan, which makes the central bank in Europe no matter how high the unemployment rate, it only needs to go all out to keep inflation below 2%, this is The most basic duties of the central bank of the European Union."
In addition, it is worth noting that in the United States, the inflation rate in the United States has reached 3.6% in 2011. Today, in order to achieve full employment, the United States has introduced a quantitative easing monetary policy to stimulate the rapid development of the entire economy. However, due to the high inflation rate in the United States, the US QE3 is difficult to start, and its policy of stimulating economic growth through the issuance of currency is unlikely to be effective in the short term.
The trend of economic development is declining, and inflation is at a high level. These two constitute the "cancer" in economics - stagflation, and this symptom is likely to rise even more next year. At that time, we could not control inflation and could not guarantee economic growth. This is the last thing we want to see. If the problem of stagflation occurs in a country that is terrible, then if global stagflation occurs in the future, it will be devastating.
Another ill-health in Europe and America - the debt crisis has still not found an answer
Qu Jian provided a set of data: In Greece, for example, Greek government public debt accounted for more than 140% of GDP in 2010. Although the euro zone suggested that its austerity expenditures start the economy, the reality is that it is implemented according to the recent plan. Greece's share of public debt in GDP will reach 160% by 2013. In such a tight situation, Greece’s public debt expenditure is still rising proportionally. What happened in this country? Qu Jian elaborated: "Because the previous debts and interest-bearing belts have been rolled together, the country has become uncomfortable, and there is a precondition for solving the European debt problem - who is the debt owed?"
But unfortunately, the Europeans themselves are unable to give an answer, and the Greeks have two tit-for-tat answers when explaining who this debt is responsible for: answer one, the Greek public believes that the society, especially the international community, generally believes Because Greece implemented a high welfare policy, it has produced today's high debt ratio. The Greek public thinks this is wrong and gives a series of examples. For example, newlyweds and college graduates can't afford a house, can't find it. Go to work, no government relief, etc. The Greek people tried to prove that Greece’s welfare is too high, not the direct cause of the debt problem that the international community believes. Second, another large part of Europeans believe that Greece’s debt problem is caused by government corruption in the international community. When it was intended to rescue Greece, such an argument stopped many countries outside Europe, and this became a problem within the international community that the international community generally considered.
It can be said that the situation of the European debt crisis has been very serious. So far, the euro zone is still unable to propose a feasible solution. Although the patchwork has taken out 1 trillion euros, the 1 trillion euro can only be said. It is a drop in the bucket and can only temporarily delay the debt crisis that is about to break out in Europe. Because the deadline for repayment of debts is about to arrive, we can only temporarily take this 1 trillion euros for a temporary turnaround.
In addition, the US debt situation is also very serious. Although the United States can solve the problem of its entire debt by issuing US dollars, the Fed also has a requirement that the US Parliament has the right to demand and limit the amount of debt borrowed by the US federal government, and allows The amount is limited, so now the core of the Obama administration and Congress is the debt limit. The ultimate solution to US debt can only be solved by increasing the amount of money printed, and at the same time introducing a quantitative easing policy. However, inflation in the United States is high, and 2012 coincides with the election year in the United States. If the Obama administration explicitly introduces quantitative easing at this stage, there are certain risks.
It indicates that the era of coastal coastal areas relying on coastal advantages will be replaced by the advantages of the inland areas in the central position; for example, if we are making furniture, if it is to export products, it is clear that the coastal areas are better than China. Inland logistics costs are lower, and the competitive advantage is more obvious. But if the center of the market is displaced from the coastal areas, especially from overseas markets, into the inland areas, do you imagine that the coastal areas are not advantageous? â€
The future of manufacturing in Shenzhen - transformation, upgrading, transfer
After the above analysis of the international and domestic economic situation, what should Shenzhen enterprises do? Qu Jian put forward four suggestions for Shenzhen enterprises, especially for manufacturing enterprises. In general, it is “transformation and upgradingâ€:
1. Develop upstream, improve brand and R&D design capabilities. This is very crucial, and it is also the core and center of the future development of Shenzhen's “headquarters economy†– R&D design and brand building.
2. In the middle of the selection, intercept the processing and manufacturing chain value-added links. A considerable part of the manufacturing process will be relocated, especially the processing and assembly of the terminal should be close to the market close to the market, and the core part will be placed in the headquarters.
3. Extend to the downstream and actively enter the productive service industry, especially the logistics distribution service. This is a business development that Shenzhen “headquarters enterprise†must face. Regarding this suggestion, Qu Jian further introduced: "I will tell you the simplest example. IBM is a typical manufacturing company. Many of our daily computers and servers are basically produced by them; but today IBM does not produce products, and instead provides technical solutions to become a purely service-oriented company; a considerable number of traditional manufacturing companies may become an investment company, which may become a logistics distribution company, possibly involving serviceability. Every aspect of the industry."
4. Expand to the supporting equipment and enter the manufacturing field of key parts and equipment of the product. Foxconn is now focusing on the era of robotics, and has gradually found that OEMs in the past have become unsustainable for OEMs. Therefore, Foxconn began to expand upstream and personally expand its business of manufacturing machinery and equipment to expand its market.
For Chinese companies, especially coastal manufacturing companies, the past 2011 is a very difficult year, but looking forward to 2012, the unfavorable economic development situation makes the company feel more pressure, on the one hand, the economic growth rate will be It will decline, on the other hand, the pressure of industrial transformation and upgrading is obviously improving. At the same time, a considerable number of manufacturing industries are faced with new areas such as finding new markets and opening up domestic markets.
Finally, Qu Jian hopes that coastal manufacturing enterprises, especially those in Shenzhen, must plan ahead and arrange early. Just as many companies took over Hong Kong enterprises to invest and set up factories in the Pearl River Delta, today they also need business owners to change their thinking and use Shenzhen. This platform has gone to other parts of the country to seek to make itself bigger and stronger. If the thinking of the business owner has not kept up, just as Hong Kong-owned enterprises stayed in Hong Kong and refused to move away, Hong Kong-owned manufacturing industry is running low today. In another ten years, I believe that if Shenzhen's manufacturing industry does not change, it will follow its footsteps. The transfer of this industry has brought pressure to Shenzhen enterprises, but it also brought a good opportunity for the development of enterprises.
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