China needs a national strategy to reshape the paper industry

-----Preliminary thinking on the development strategy of China's paper industry Cui Heming Introduction In traditional industries, whether compared with the raw material industry, the energy industry, or the general processing industry, the paper industry is a characteristic industry that is specific to China. Under the constraint of institutional and resource constraints, the characteristics of the paper industry also show quite distinctive Chinese characteristics: For example, it is an industry that can choose different raw material routes, namely wood fiber (wood) routes and grass fiber (from bamboo, bamboo, Bagasse, wheat straw, straw, hemp etc.) The choice of different routes will not only have far-reaching impact on the problems and statuses that need to be solved in the development of the paper industry, but also have great differences. This feature is similar to the different choices of the source structure will profoundly affect (determine) the appearance of the energy industry and further profoundly affect the entire national economy, similar to some chemical products (such as engineering plastics PVC) because of different process routes (such as the selection of calcium carbide acetylene The route line production still takes the ethylene route, which makes the industry conditions vary widely. The “mainstream route”, which is dominated by wood fiber (95%), is totally different from the world’s paper industry. China's paper industry has adopted the grass fiber route since the “1st Five-Year Period” (currently, wood fiber accounts for only about 10%). It is not difficult to understand why China's paper industry has consistently used the so-called "grass and wood dispute" in its development process for decades. The paper industry may become one of the biggest scourges that severely damages the ecological environment on a large scale. It is one of the largest consumers of timber resources and one of the major sources of environmental pollution (producing water pollution), and it may also become an improvement of the ecological environment. One of the main business entities is the need to create and operate large-scale artificial forest land (this report does not allow any negative impact on the ecology of large-area single tree species). And can carry on the high standard to the pollution to control (the wood pulp phlegm's treatment technology has been quite mature, practical). The paper industry is characterized by the inherent needs of its operations and the positive and negative effects of the ecological environment. It is difficult to find similar examples in other industries. This characteristic of the paper industry makes it an important part of China's implementation of the "can be continued development strategy" and a typical industry. As a result, most of the Chinese paper industry’s experts have fought for the road of “combination of forestry and paper” for the rest of their lives. However, little effect has been achieved so far. In terms of economies of scale, the paper industry is also a typical two-sided industry. On the one hand, regardless of the scale of the factory or the size of the company's operations, the modern paper industry has extremely significant scale economies. The "Golden Light Group" mentioned more than once in the following, the investment plan for the investment paper industry in China exceeds tens of millions of acres, and the minimum size of pulp and paper mills is 600,000 tons, which is a convincing case. On the other hand, the paper industry may also conduct decentralized small-scale management. The paper industry is an ancient industry. Its scale economy is characterized by technological advancement, great improvement in environmental protection and ecological requirements, and increasingly large international trade. Commodity and other factors gradually strengthened. Super-large-scale operation is the characteristic of modern paper industry. However, in the face of the demand for certain middle- and low-end varieties of paper, small paper mills in China still have considerable benefits in China if the manufacturers do not pay enough or even do not pay for the cost of pollution. There are also many industries with similar characteristics. Even in the automobile industry with the most significant economies of scale, too many manufacturers have emerged under the “protection” of China’s high customs tariff rate, and they have not stopped but stopped. This characteristic of the paper industry makes it very easy to go to the extremes of scattered, chaotic, poor, and dirty. Comparing the relationship among income, prices, and demand, we find that paper is a commodity with a small elastic demand for price; and for a developing country, the demand for paper income is relatively large for a fairly long period of development. The conclusions drawn from these two characteristics are crucial to China's development of a paper industry development strategy. The growth in demand for paper in China may far exceed the “China Paper’s Ninth Five-Year Plan” and the 2010 development prospects. It is not a long way for China to become the world’s largest consumer of paper. China’s demand for imports of paper is dependent on The degree is likely to increase at a faster rate, so that not only does the import of paper (including pulp) become an important factor affecting the balance of foreign trade and foreign exchange, but it also causes the price of paper to fluctuate greatly (the price movement determined by the low price elasticity of demand). Characteristics, the international paper price data fully proves this feature) has become an important factor affecting the stability and security of the national economy. The above characteristics of the paper industry make the paper industry an industry that needs the country's most tangible hands to manage - This is particularly true in the context of China's specific institutional environment and resource constraints, etc. First, at the level of the entire national economy, it is necessary for the state to formulate plans for land, forests, and the environment, and to mention laws and other means to establish constraints for the development of the paper industry. The conditions guide the direction of development of the paper industry, and at the same time provide space for the full development of the paper industry. Secondly, in the industry On the other hand, it is necessary for the country to formulate a strategy for the development of the paper industry, determine industrial support policies and coordinate the relationship between paper and forestry and other vertical or horizontal industries, and if necessary, use industrial grouping methods and resource allocation capabilities to promote the modernization of the paper industry. In the period when China’s market mechanism is far from mature, the country’s management on these two levels is indispensable, and after the market mechanism is relatively complete, the country’s management on the first level will continue to be strengthened, with the country in the The two-tiered intervention may also be used; if the industry’s industry is not sufficient to achieve national strategic interests and strategic will, or if the market adjustment is not sufficient to solve some major problems in the development of the paper industry. The development of the industry is in a completely non-strategic state, and a few state-owned large factories are still under planning and management due to the special nature of their needs (such as newsprint and banknote paper), and only substantive reforms have been made in recent years. The rest of the industry is the same as the light industry system it was affiliated with. It was the first marketization in the reforms, and the result was that many small paper mills were raining. It has grown up like bamboo shoots. Only when the pollution caused by these small and medium-sized paper mills has jeopardized the survival of the vast downstream areas, the paper industry has aroused the deep concern of the country and society. Twenty years of experience since the opening of the grass has proved that China is currently The market has also cultivated a paper industry that has not appeared. The three major events that took place in China’s paper industry in 1996 have undoubtedly made this year a watershed and turning point in the history of China’s paper industry. The year has really felt the tremendous pressure from foreign competition and the serious problems in the paper industry in our country."Wolf" really came! It was too quick and came too suddenly, there was no time to reflect too much, and only to respond quickly. The major events occurred almost simultaneously before and after this: The first occurred in the Chinese paper industry: The state began to seriously and severely strengthen the requirements for pollution control of paper mills, and it really started to shut down in small batches small, highly polluting small paper mills. The second piece was “Yang Paper” which began to violently hit the Chinese market this year. The Chinese companies that were deeply affected by it were forced to ask the government to pick up “anti-dumping”. Weapons, and this China's "first" anti-dumping, happened precisely in the paper industry. The third major event was the development of "aircraft carrier" into China - a major multinational company in the world paper industry launched a series of strategic investment actions in China. Its scale, goals, advanced equipment and management made us The domestic counterparts were stunned and hoped that "ship" would sigh. The "Jinguang Group" is precisely from developing countries. It makes us think and think deeply. It is time for China's paper industry to reflect on itself. China's paper industry has finally become "mixed". However, unlike most processing industries, China's paper industry has almost no excess production capacity. Before 1995, the supply and demand relationship of the domestic paper industry was still largely balanced within the scope of “self-sufficiency”. The volume of imports and exports was small. In the past two years, “paper” impacted on medium and high-grade paper. The power lies in the quality and cost (although this "anti-dumping" case has already been established, it cannot be denied that its cost competitiveness still constitutes a support factor for "dumping"). The “mixing” of China’s paper industry does not lie in the fact that it is like the sudden discovery that the “wolf” (the paper that the world has and continues to modernize) really came! By contrast, the modernization of China's paper industry has almost never started. It is still far behind the modernization of most other domestic industries. The “well-off” situation of China’s paper industry may be one of the reasons for its backwardness. No wonder a paper expert from overseas said after years of seeking joint venture partners in China and suffered bitterness: “From our point of view, China has no paper industry.” “According to our standards, existing paper mills must be leveled out. We will come back again.” After we learned about the paper industry, we heard that the gentleman’s words are not arrogant or harsh. Nearly half a century ago, the development of China's paper industry has avoided the so-called international mainstream route that must be supported by huge investments and abundant forest resources. Although this mobilized the enthusiasm of investing in the paper industry in various aspects under the slicing system, it largely ensured the continuous growth of domestic paper demand and supported the priority development strategy of the national heavy chemical industry, but it also paid a heavy price: China's paper industry was extremely low. Industrial quality and pollution damage that cannot be valued for the environment. The survival of China's paper industry suddenly faces the serious threat of double standards, which are domestic environmental protection standards and international competition standards. This makes the strategic restructuring of China's paper industry not only affect the overall situation and touch the fundamentals, but also the timing is urgent and must not be delayed. China's paper industry must thoroughly rethink its development path and re-determine its development strategy. This requires, in particular, a forward-looking national strategy. The task of this report is not to formulate a strategic plan for China's paper industry, but to explore the guiding ideology and possible strategic options for China's paper industry development strategy. To this end, the report focuses on the following three issues on the basis of the research of Lu Mai and He Liping: 1. Is China, the world's third-largest producer, facing a crisis of survival? - Does China have a paper business? Second, China will soon become the world's largest paper industry? - Does China need paper? Third, China may become a powerful paper industry in the world? - Where is China's paper industry? I. There is no paper industry in the third largest paper industry? China is a big paper country. During the two decades of rapid economic growth, the output of a series of basic industries and traditional industrial products in China has leapt to the top of the world. Many industries that have marked modernization have also achieved amazing development. China’s overall national strength has been greatly increased by one order of magnitude. . As a result, “predictors indicate that in 2000, China will become the world’s fifth-largest economic power; from 2010 to 2021, China will become the world’s second or third largest economic power. In 2050, China will become the first economic power. The proud Americans all believe that “China and the United States are the real world powers in the next century.” At the same time, the growth of China’s paper industry maintained a level “equal to” the growth of the industrial output value. The output of mechanism paper and board was only 108,000 tons. It recovered to 380,000 tons in 1950 and 390,000 tons in 1978. It was ranked tenth in the world according to output. In 1994, the output of paper and board in China reached 21.38 million. Ton, the output ranked among the world's third largest papermaking countries, and it was relatively close to Japan (28.52 million tons in 1994), but it was much worse than the United States (806.66 million tons in 1994). 1995 in China The output reached a record high of 28.12 million tons, and in the following two years, it was due to the impact of “paper” and The impact of factors such as the forced closure of small paper mills in the country, but the output of the third largest country has not yet been lost.From the perspective of growth rate, He Liping ranked the period from 1949 to 1978 as the first stage, with an average growth rate of 14%; In 1990, it was classified as the second stage, with an average growth rate of 10%, 1990-1995 as the third stage (a year of coincidence, ie, 1990), and an average growth rate of 15% per cow. In general: “Consider paper and cardboard. The growth rate of the output is based on physical quantity and cannot fully reflect the value change caused by the quality improvement of the calculation object, so the comparable growth rate of paper output and general industrial output may be underestimated. Because the latter is based on the total output value or value added. If calculated in terms of value, the growth of China's paper industry is significantly higher than that of GDP growth and slightly higher than the average growth rate of the industry. This is a relatively positive conclusion. Before 1995, the proportion of paper imports and exports in China was relatively small, and the relationship between supply and demand for paper was generally balanced at the level of self-sufficiency (a few high-end varieties, some wood pulp, and waste paper rely on imports). The increase in domestic supply capacity has largely satisfied the growth of most of the paper's consumer demand, and it has almost no excess production capacity. 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