Zhongtai Securities
Lead: On January 19, Yutong Technology announced the revision of the 2018 annual performance forecast. The company expects to achieve a net profit of 9.32-9.78 billion yuan in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 0%-5%. The revenue in 2018 is expected to be 85.3-86.3. 100 million yuan, an increase of 22.8% -24.2%.
Yutong Technology: Expected to increase revenue and net profit in 2018
On January 19, Yutong Technology released the announcement of the 2018 annual performance forecast. The company expects to achieve a net profit of 9.32-9.78 billion yuan in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 0%-5% (the third quarter report has a net profit margin of 8.39- 9.7 billion yuan, an increase of -10%-5%). Revenue in 2018 is expected to be 85.3-86.3 billion yuan, an increase of 22.8%-24.2%. According to this calculation, the company's estimated revenue in the fourth quarter is 30.8-31.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%-31%; the net profit expected to return to the mother is 3.89-4.36 billion yuan, an increase of 21.4%-35.9%.
Large consumption and heavy volume revenue increase, good for profit and smooth profitability
Based on this announcement, we believe that Yutong Technology's fourth-quarter revenue margin also showed an inflection point (Q3 revenue increased by 16.4% year-on-year, and net profit of home fell by 7.8%).
At the income end, Yutong Technology vigorously promoted the daily packaging business of tobacco and alcohol, and adjusted the revenue structure. In recent years, the growth rate of non-3C business has stabilized at over 70%. This year, the company established a subsidiary company with Jiangsu Jinzhicai to complete the acquisition and acquisition of Wuhan Aite, and the acquisition of Jiangsu Dejin to speed up the introduction of new customers of wine bags, cigarette packets and daily chemical business, driving the growth of revenue growth.
At the profit end, the negative factors of the decline in the previous profit are gradually released:
1) The upstream paper price has gradually adjusted back from the beginning of October. As of December 31, the price of coated paper/white cardboard/double adhesive paper/corrugated paper decreased by 15.7%/12%/9.6%/14.7%, respectively, which was favorable for cost pressure release.
2) The strong US dollar pattern improves exchange rate and bearishness. The exchange loss of the company's 2017/2018H1 was 107 million yuan / 23 million yuan respectively, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB in 2018Q4 was at a high level, which helped the company's exchange rate to be released.
3) Improvement in human efficiency. The company's per capita output in 2017 was only 407,000 yuan. With the increase in the volume of newly introduced tobacco and alcohol cosmetics packaging customers, the company's improvement in human efficiency played a positive role in improving the performance.
Layout of environmentally friendly paper and plastic, promoting packaging intelligence
While optimizing the customer structure, Yutong Technology is committed to intelligent production and product structure optimization. Previously, in July 18, the company announced that it would invest no more than 600 million yuan to build Yibin environmentally-friendly paper-plastic project (main production box and paper tray). It is expected to achieve an annual output value of 1.2 billion yuan after full production in 2020; The Songshan Lake Hengli Area has an investment of no more than RMB 600 million for the construction of R&D and manufacturing center projects. It is expected to achieve an annual output value of RMB 1 billion after production and is expected to reach production in 2023.
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